What Happens When Observations and Models Tell Different Stories?
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a giant conveyor belt of ocean currents that redistributes heat across the globe—and helps keep our climate in check. Over the past decade, scientists have observed troubling signs that this system may be slowing down. These early-warning signals, often described as “critical slowing down,” suggest AMOC may be approaching a tipping point.

But most Earth System Models (ESMs) don’t project an abrupt collapse of the AMOC, even in high-warming scenarios.

In this ClimTip webinar, Dr. Yechul Shin (Climate System Laboratory, Seoul National University) helps make sense of this mismatch. He identifies a reconciled early-warning signal over AMOC’s deep convection region—one that shows up in both observational data and ESMs. His findings suggest that the apparent stability of the AMOC in models might be misleading, due to overestimated freshwater feedbacks that delay the tipping point.

What Does This Mean?
If AMOC is behaving today like models expect it would in a much warmer world, we may be closer to a collapse than current projections assume. And if so, the risks are not only real—they’re urgent.

Watch the Full Webinar
You can watch Dr. Yechul Shin's complete talk below:

For more conversations like this, explore the ClimTip webinar series and see how science is tackling the biggest challenges of climate tipping points.

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Watch another webinar on the impacts and uncertainties of the AMOC collapse by Maya Ben-Yami.

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Thumbnail and opener: Design by Kuat Abeshev. Photo by NASA (Ocean currents of the Gulf Stream).