Our key messages to the world

📣 13 Statements* on:

Science basis of
‍climate tipping points

Several parts of the Earth system are at risk of tipping to alternative states in response to human-made climate and land-use change.

Some observational evidence suggests that the stability of several key Earth system components has declined over the last century, making tipping more likely. This includes the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Amazon rainforest, and the South American monsoon.

The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Amazon rainforest, the South American monsoon and the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica could be practically irreversible. Crossing these tipping points would thus commit many future generations to drastic changes in climate, sea level, and biodiversity.

Large-scale climate tipping events would have severe climatic, ecological and socioeconomic impacts, presenting serious and unprecedented dangers to society.

We can’t rule out large-scale climate tipping events at any level of global warming. The probability of triggering such events increases as we continue emitting greenhouse gasses and degrading ecosystems.

The mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has been accelerating. This loss will likely become irreversible in the coming decades, leading to gradual sea-level rise of 7 meters over the course of millennia.

The West Antarctic ice sheet is prone to disintegration as ocean temperatures increase, which would raise sea levels by 3 to 5 meters over the course of centuries.

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would substantially cool Northern Europe and severely disrupt the tropical monsoon systems, potentially affecting the livelihoods of billions of people.

There is increasing risk of Amazon rainforest dieback due to the combined threat of climate and land-use change. This would cause widespread species extinction, reduce rainfall in South America, and further raise atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

The tipping of one or even multiple Earth system components is an uncertain but plausible scenario that could lead to additional warming. However, it is implausible that the climate system will reach a global tipping point that leads to uncontrollable runaway warming.

Implications and
policy relevance

Understanding and addressing climate tipping points is imperative for safeguarding our planet's future and fostering a sustainable and resilient world. Improved assessment of the critical levels of greenhouse gas emissions, land use change and environmental pollution is urgently needed.

Immediate and decisive action to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions would reduce the risk of crossing climate tipping points. Even after reaching net-zero emissions tipping points could still be crossed because of already locked-in changes.

Uncertainties in estimates of critical forcing levels (‘tipping points’) will persist due to the complexity of the climate system. Keeping the risk of tipping to a minimum would thus demand extra efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change.

*These key messages reflect the current state of knowledge as understood by the ClimTip project scientists. They are not exhaustive and should be considered a work in progress. We will continue to modify and refine these statements as our scientific understanding of the topic evolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

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What is ClimTip?

ClimTip is an international research project funded by the EU under the Horizon Europe programme. It is a multidisciplinary effort dedicated to advancing our understanding and prediction of Earth's climate tipping points. Through cutting-edge research and data analysis, we strive to identify critical thresholds in the climate system, focusing on four major systems: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest. By developing early warning systems and conducting comprehensive assessments, we aim to generate information that helps to mitigate the impacts of these tipping points on ecosystems, societies and economies worldwide. Our work is crucial for fostering global awareness and collaboration in addressing the urgent challenges posed by climate tipping points.

What are the objectives of the project?

The primary objectives of the ClimTip project are to deepen our understanding of climate tipping points, refine predictive models, and develop early warning systems. We aim to assess the impacts of tipping events on climate, ecosystems and society, while formulating strategies for adaptation and mitigation. Additionally, we aim to raise awareness among the public and policy-makers about the importance and risks of climate tipping points. Read more about our science goals here.

What are climate tipping points?

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in the climate system where small changes can lead to significant and potentially irreversible shifts. These shifts can have abrupt and profound impacts on weather patterns, ecosystems and human societies, with far-reaching consequences for biodiversity, agriculture and sea levels. Understanding and addressing these tipping points is imperative for safeguarding our planet's future and fostering a sustainable and resilient world.

How close are we to crossing climate tipping points?

While scientists have identified potential tipping points in our climate system, there are significant uncertainties regarding when and how these thresholds may be crossed. These uncertainties underscore the importance of deepening our understanding of climate tipping points and developing early warning systems. The urgency lies in the fact that even small changes in global temperatures can increase the risk of triggering these critical thresholds. By actively addressing climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we can work to mitigate the risk of crossing tipping points and minimize their potential impacts on our planet.

What are the most important Tipping Elements?

While ongoing debates within the scientific community acknowledge uncertainties surrounding the status of various tipping elements in Earth's climate system, certain systems, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica and the Amazon rainforest are widely acknowledged as critical tipping elements. The ClimTip project focuses its research efforts primarily on these major tipping elements, recognizing their paramount importance in global climate dynamics. These elements are significant due to their potential to trigger abrupt and irreversible changes, such as sea level rise, disruptions to global weather patterns and loss of biodiversity.

Our key messages to the world

Science basis of ‍climate tipping points

Implications andpolicy relevance

Science basis of
‍climate tipping points

Implications and
policy relevance