What Will Happen When the AMOC Tips? That’s not a hypothetical question—it’s one of the most important uncertainties in climate science today. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vast conveyor belt of ocean currents that moves heat and salt across the globe. Its slowdown—or worse, collapse—could drastically reshape rainfall patterns, shift monsoons, and bring significant temperature changes to the Northern Hemisphere.

In this ClimTip webinar, Maya Ben-Yami (Technical University of Munich & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) unpacks what scientists know—and don’t know—about AMOC’s future. Drawing on observational records, climate model simulations, and early-warning theory, she explores the following key questions:

• What are the real-world consequences of an AMOC collapse?
  One focus is on tropical monsoon systems—how would they shift, weaken, or intensify?
• Has the collapse already started?
  Sea surface temperature “fingerprints” and other signs that may indicate a critical slowing down of AMOC since the 19th century.
• Can we predict when it might tip?
  While early-warning signals offer some insight, uncertainties remain high. Maya Ben-Yami explains why.

Why It Matters
AMOC collapse is considered a "high-impact, low-likelihood" event—but the odds are shifting. This webinar breaks down what the models show, what the data suggest, and why our assumptions about timing, impacts, and predictability need constant re-evaluation.

Complete Webinar Recording
Watch the full talk here:

For more conversations like this, explore the ClimTip webinar series and see how science is tackling the biggest challenges of climate tipping points.

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Watch the ClimTip webinar with Dr Yechul Shin on the risks of nearing AMOC tipping.‍

Thumbnail and opener: Design by Kuat Abeshev. Photo by Image credit (Thumbnail and Opening slide): Photo by Graham Pengelly on Unsplash.