Identifying early-warning signals (EWS) for climate tipping points is crucial for managing the unfolding climate crisis. But how do we detect these signals in the complex, high-dimensional systems that define Earth’s climate? In this ClimTip webinar, Dr. Johannes Lohmann from the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen breaks down why traditional approaches often fall short and how his team is rethinking the problem.

Dr. Lohmann challenges the idea that early-warning signals are universally easy to spot. He explains how only specific parts of a system—certain degrees of freedom (DOF)—are involved in reliable signalling of critical transitions, while others might muddy the waters, leading to false alarms or missed warnings. Drawing on advanced numerical models, he introduces new strategies like edge states and instantons, which offer a sharper lens to identify when and how tipping points might happen.

Key Insights from the Webinar

• Why It’s Hard to Detect Tipping Points: Climate systems are high-dimensional, meaning not every variable gives a clear signal of an approaching tipping point.
• Degrees of Freedom (DOF) Matter: Only certain DOF directly influence transitions, and knowing which to measure is critical.
• The Problem with Current Methods: Using incomplete data or the wrong metrics can lead to false positives or negatives, making our warnings unreliable.
• Better Tools for Smarter Warnings: Techniques like edge states and instantons could help refine early-warning signals and make them more actionable.
• Why This Matters: Accurate signals help policymakers, scientists and society prepare for and respond to the risks of tipping points.

Dr. Lohmann’s work not only deepens our understanding of climate tipping points but also sets the stage for more reliable early-warning systems—tools that are urgently needed in the face of accelerating climate change.

Watch the Full Webinar
Watch the full recording of Dr. Lohmann’s talk below to learn more about his research insights:

For more conversations like this, explore the ClimTip webinar series and see how science is tackling the biggest challenges of climate tipping points.

Stay updated about the next webinars in our series.

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Thumbnail and opener photo by Naja Bertolt Jensen on Unsplash.